![]() ![]() More win probability means earning more high level characters. Higher level characters mean higher win probability. Players play matches because it earns them characters. Persistence also allows for the possibility of investment. Each player is tuned against a wall of stat dials, like this Kevin De Bruyne card. In Ultimate team, earning power is achieved by increasing the OVR of the team. Unlike, say, League of Legends where players earn different characters but the characters are intended to be equally powerful (horizontal progression). Vertical progression or power progression means players earn more powerful and downside-free items overtime. Vertical progression is a literal interpretation of this. Many fantasy sports run over a short time period (a weekend) whereas persistence allows players to carry over the state of a prior session into a new one. Persistence separates fantasy sports from some live service games. Fantasy sports has this in spades, while FIFA has an extremely competitive ranked system and a strong e-sports community. The tension comes from what a win or loss would mean. Or top Magic the Gathering matches as comparable in tension to top chess matches. A top ranked game in a shooter is plenty tense enough. The inclusion of stakes is rather obvious, but it doesn’t just have to be money. Skill Progression (better short-run choices overtime).Persistence (more powerful overtime, build identity).Wait till you see EA’s F1 announcement Twitter threadīut beyond markets, other key aspects drive fantasy and UT: It started as paid DLC and long after FIFA’s initial release. FIFA only became a monetization and engagement juggernaut after the release of UT. control a player/team via joystick) is almost tangential to FIFA’s popularity. I just think we’ve just misidentified the location. But if you want a monopoly, you want it where the value is. Konami and PES have faced bidding wars with EA and unsurprisingly the asset has gone its highest valued use (EA’s FIFA). It’s been difficult to challenge FIFA since EA maintains a monopoly on simulation style football games with FIFA and many individual clubs. Who wouldn’t want a slice? Dominant leagues, however, maintain a moat: licensing. If we add in collectibles (cards, memorabilia) and fantasy sports, we’re likely approaching $3-4 dollars for every $10 spent on “core” sports. This likely translates to about $1-$2 spent on sports games for every $10 spent on “core” sports activity. Sports games account for about $6.6B or 11% of the U.S. In North America alone, media rights, gate revenues, sponsorship, and merchandising represent around $75B in annual revenue. Unsurprisingly, the total addressable market for sports is enormous. Studying prices via markets and making forecasts turns out to be a pretty fun game. If it doesn’t, you can exploit that knowledge to avoid owning an asset that doesn’t generate fantasy points. If you think a player is not likely to come back from injury his market price should drop accordingly. This creates multitudes of implicit side-bets. When leagues span a season, persistence emerges, allowing players to effectively GM a team. There is some persistence in that high scoring players receive a unique cosmetic and access to exclusive betting pools. DraftKings has entry tokens, a store of value, but that’s hardly progression. Yet, Ultimate Team, and FIFA UT specifically (it’s in Madden as well as NHL), have clearly tapped into something:īut generally, fantasy sports doesn’t offer between bet progression in the same way that UT lets players grow OVR overtime. EA’s Ultimate Team model goes relatively unstudied compared to the newest Supercell arrivals. Some games seem to escape monetization punditry despite wild success (GTA:V!). French start-up Sorare fuses these aspects in a way we haven’t seen before it’s the greatest challenger to UT and fantasy sports in years (sorry PES). These platforms offer us an opportunity to insert ourselves closer to the action. Fantasy sports gives betters big stakes based on outcomes. FIFA Ultimate Team (UT) has players collect star footballers. ![]() NBA TopShot lets users “own” iconic moments. But the terms of that engrossment are not incidental, they’re crucial. It’s no secret that the internet, and games in particular, have found even more ways to engross us in the world of sports. Players are celebrated as heroes and children grow up wanting to become them. Professional sports give us something to aspire too. ![]()
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